EIEIO...Live From San Diego
On April 17th, leaders from across the global innovation economy will gather in San Diego for the 14th annual ASU+GSV Summit. We will welcome over 7,000 attendees from 70+ countries representing over 900 of the world’s most innovative EdTech companies. This year’s keynote speakers include Bill Gates, Sheryl Sandberg, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
What makes the Summit so impactful is the unusual “cocktail” of participants we convene, and the common ingredient is our commitment to giving everybody an equal opportunity to participate in the future.
The ASU+GSV Summit has incredible momentum because people come here to make things happen. Connections are made. Capital is raised. Ideas are brought to life.
You can find the agenda here and register virtually if you can’t attend in person.
We wanted to share a few facts to set the stage before heading to San Diego. We’re close readers of Harper’s Index, so here’s our own EIEIO Index: ASU+GSV Edition.
82% – online college students that enroll in their state of residence (Source)
84% – comments on DCL guidance that are for tuition revenue-sharing agreements (Source)
9% – comments on DCL guidance that are against tuition revenue-sharing agreements (Source)
235 million – students enrolled in universities in 2023 (Source)
414 million – students enrolled in universities in 2030 (Source)
100 million – students that ASU’s Thunderbird School of Management plans to educate by 2030 (Source)
53% – Americans in 2013 who thought that a four-year degree would lead to good jobs and higher earnings (Source)
42% – Americans in 2023 who thought that a four-year degree would lead to good jobs and higher earnings (Source)
$22,000 – difference between the median earnings of younger workers with bachelor’s degrees vs. high school degrees (Source)
80% – IIT BTech grads that took jobs abroad in 2001 (Source)
2% – IIT BTech grads that took jobs abroad in 2021 (Source)
50% – younger Americans that “live online” (Source)
~100 – average daily minutes spent on TikTok (Source)
~100 – average daily minutes spent on Snapchat, Twitter, and Instagram…combined (Source)
>50% – TikTok users that say it makes them feel happy and amused (Source)
<10% – TikTok users that say it makes them feel inadequate and stressed (Source)
66% – Gen Z TikTok users who would choose TikTok over traditional TV and streaming shows (Source)
80% – percent of the top 5 most downloaded apps in the US over the past month that are owned by Chinese companies (Source)
78,000 – kids homeschooled in America in 1971 (Source)
5,000,000 – kids homeschooled in America in 2021 (Source)
0.9 – correlation between public EdTech companies’ forward revenue multiples and their “Rule of” number (Source)
90% – YTD performance of Duolingo ($DUOL) as of 4/14 (Source)
#2 – Kahoot’s rank among the Top 10 coolest Gen Z Brands in Western Europe (Source)
18% – average 2023 EBITDA margin outlook for public EdTech companies (Source)
17% – average 2023 revenue growth outlook for public EdTech companies (Source)
27 – companies in the GSV 150 with $250M+ in annual revenue (Source)
4.6% – unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 in February 2023 (Source)
2.3% – unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 in December 2021 (Source)
34% – startups in the current YC class list that uses AI (Source)
18% – work globally that could be computerized according to Goldman Sachs economists (Source)
21% – bachelor’s degrees conferred in 2019-2020 in STEM fields (Source)
45% – Gen. Z that feels most like themselves “online” than “offline” (Source)
>60% – Gen. Z and Millennials that consider themselves a gamer (Source)
$1,100 – amount that children ages 12 to 17 spent online in 2021 (Source)
2x – women flying U.S. military planes as there are men teaching kindergarten (Source)
64% – consumers that agree that brands should be about something more than profit (Source)
11 – consecutive years where the post-secondary total enrollments in America dropped (Source)
72% – American parents that support school choice (Source)
51% – Americans that live in child care deserts (Source)
0.5% – US education budget spent on R&D (Source)
10.5% – US healthcare budget spent on R&D (Source)
86% – principals that would hire another TFA Corps member if they had a vacancy at their school (Source)
26 million – borrowers that applied to Biden’s student loan debt cancellation plan (Source)
1 in 5 – students who are experiencing poverty that are proficient in basic math (Source)
9 – different education voter models developed by Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial campaign (Source)
70% – employees that say their personal sense of purpose is defined by their work (Source)
2,708 – earnings call mentions of AI during Q1’23 (Source)
479 – earnings call mentions of cryptocurrency during Q1’23 (Source)
38% – school board members that plan to run for reelection after their term (Source)
82% – Harvard faculty that are interested in adding digital tools they adopted while teaching remotely to in-person classes (Source)
Market Performance
The Dow closed the week up 1.2%, the S & P 500 up 0.8%, and the NASDAQ up 0.3%. Materials and industrials outperformed within the S & P 500 Index.
The Fed minutes were released on Wednesday. The main takeaway is that the central bank expects a mild recession in late 2023 and that the “soft landing” window could be closing quickly.
Earnings season unofficially kicked off on Friday, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup releasing earnings. All three companies beat consensus estimates. We’ll see if that momentum carries over to the Software sector. The average enterprise software company added ~20% less net new ARR in Q4 ‘22 vs. a year prior.
In Tech World, Twitter became a part of X Corp., the first step in Elon Musk’s plan to transform Twitter into a Super App. In a 60 Minutes interview, Google CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled a never-before-seen text-to-video AI tool.
GSV’s Four I’s of Investor Sentiment
GSV tracks four primary indicators of investor sentiment: inflows and outflows of mutual funds and ETFs, IPO activity, interest rates, and inflation. Here’s how these four signals performed last week:
#1: Inflows and Outflows for Mutual Funds & ETFs
Source: Yardeni
#2: IPO Market
While the US IPO Market continues to remain quiet, the UAE IPO Market continues to be red hot. Emerging Markets Property Group, which owns Dubizzle, is rumored to be looking at an IPO in Dubai or Abu Dhabi.
Source: Renaissance Capital
#3: Interest Rates
Fed Governor Waller shared this week that he supports another rate hike in May, claiming that inflation “is still much too high and so my job is not done.” If the Fed hikes rates at their next meeting, the Fed’s benchmark rate would be about 5.1%, the highest in 16 years.
Source: IMF
#4: Inflation
The “Great Inflation” continues, but this week’s inflation print showed that headline CPI has now fallen for 9 consecutive months. What remains to be seen is if we’re reaching escape velocity or stuck moving sideways. Berkshire Hathaway’s 1970s-themed annual meeting choice is an interesting signal…
Source: Berkshire Hathaway
Video of the Week
E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
Chart of the Week
Chuckles of the Week
EIEIO…Fast Facts
Entrepreneurship: 86% — percent of YC Founders that lived in SF during the W23 batch, up from 53% in the last batch (Source)
Innovation: 98% — percent of all dollars invested in ARKK since 10/31/2014 inception losing money (Source)
Education: 10% – percent of black high school seniors rated as college ready by the ACT (Source)
Impact: 90% – percent of Americans that live within 10 miles of a Walmart (Source)
Opportunity: 2.1% – percent of US VC funding that went to startups with all-female founding teams in Q1 2023 (Source)
Connecting the Dots & EIEIO…
Old MacDonald had a farm, EIEIO. New MacDonald has a Startup…. EIEIO: Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Education, Impact and Opportunity. Accordingly, we focus on these key areas of the future.
One of the core goals of GSV is to connect the dots around EIEIO and provide perspective on where things are going and why. If you like this, please forward to your friends. Onward!
Make Your Dash Count!
-MM